---
title: Why month three is the hardest for a new team | Nobu Sato
description: "Tuckman's storming has a date in a Japan entity: month three, when HQ expats and local hires first decide together. None of Gersick's eight teams followed it."
image: https://nobusato.jp/hubfs/covers-2026-11/why-month-three-is-the-hardest-cover-en-2026-10-m.png
---

[Nobu Sato](https://nobusato.jp/en?hsLang=en)

[Profile](https://nobusato.jp/en/profile?hsLang=en) [Method](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/method?hsLang=en) [Articles](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog?hsLang=en) [Glossary](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/glossary?hsLang=en) [Contact](https://nobusato.jp/en/contact?hsLang=en)

[日本語](https://nobusato.jp/ja/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest)[English](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest)[中文](https://nobusato.jp/zh/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest)

Launching in Japan

In this article

1. [A model and its source](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest#s1)
2. [Why month three really is hard in a Japan entity](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest#s2)
3. [What to do before month three](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest#s3)

1. [Home](https://nobusato.jp/en?hsLang=en)
2. [Articles](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog?hsLang=en)
3. [Launching in Japan](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/tag/launching-in-japan)

# Why month three is the hardest for a new team

Not a psychological stage: three pressures land in one month

[Nobu Sato](https://nobusato.jp/en/profile?hsLang=en)6 min read

Contents3

1. [A model and its source](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest#s1)
2. [Why month three really is hard in a Japan entity](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest#s2)
3. [What to do before month three](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest#s3)

In a new Japan entity, month three is usually the hardest, and the trouble rarely looks like trouble. The first two months go well. The two people from HQ and the three local hires are polite, eat lunch together, agree on office rules. Then, in month three, the first customer quote has to be set. HQ's people say use the global price list. The local people say that price won't sell in Japan. Two hours of meeting, no decision. For the next two weeks the local people say less in meetings.

Almost every new entity goes through some version of this. Management theory has a ready word for it: storming. Before you use the word, it helps to know where it came from, because it is more fragile than it looks.

## A model and its source

In 1965 Bruce Tuckman reviewed about fifty studies of small groups and proposed four stages: forming, storming, norming, performing. The sequence has been printed in nearly every management textbook since. What gets mentioned less is that about half of those fifty studies were of therapy groups. Natural work teams were a small minority. Tuckman himself wrote at the end that the sequence needed to be tested over time on real teams.

In 1988 Connie Gersick did that. She followed eight project teams with deadlines, from first meeting to delivery. Not one went through forming, storming and norming in order. She saw a different shape. Each team settled on an approach at its first meeting and ran on that momentum. Then, at roughly the midpoint of its time, it abruptly re-examined everything, made large changes, and drove to the finish. She called it punctuated equilibrium.

Month three is hard because three pressures land in the same month, not because of a psychological stage

A new Japan entity, month by month in year one. Based on the author’s experience and Gersick’s midpoint (1988), not Tuckman’s sequence (1965)

1. Month 1Write down decision rights, and clash once on something smallPut on paper who decides quotes, hires and reports, and get HQ to sign. Run one low-risk decision, such as the office location, through the formal process
2. Month 2Smooth going on things with no right answerOffice, procedures, business cards. Everyone is polite and little collides
3. Month 3Three things land together: the first real decision, probation nearing its end, HQ’s first quarterly checkIn Japan this shows up as quiet, not argument. “Hard to say” becomes common. Hold a named three-month review
4. Month 3 to 6The whole team re-examines direction at the midpointIf Gersick is right, this is a necessary step, not a breakdown. Budget for lower output that month from the start

Storming is a map, not a timetable. Writing decision rights down in month one keeps the month-three clash small.

Figure 1. In a new Japan entity, the first real decision, the end of probation and HQ’s first quarterly check all arrive in month three, and in Japan the strain shows up as silence, so write decision rights down and get HQ to sign them in month one, then hold a named review in month three.

So storming is a useful metaphor. It isn't a law. Some teams have it, some don't, and some hit their conflict at the midpoint rather than in month three. I use it to know where to look, and I don't expect it on a schedule.

## Why month three really is hard in a Japan entity

Even with a shaky model, month three in a new entity is a real hurdle in my experience. The reasons are concrete, and they have nothing to do with psychological stages.

It is the first real decision. Nothing in the first two months had a right answer: office, process, business cards. Month three brings the quote, the first hiring decision, the first report to HQ. These do have right answers, and the HQ people and the local people define right differently. [The people sent from HQ](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/dont-run-a-startup-entity-like-head-office?hsLang=en) carry HQ's coordinate system. The locals carry the market's. Month three is the first time both have to land on the same number.

Probation is ending. Japanese probation periods mostly run three to six months. Around month three, local staff start asking whether this company is what the job description said. The company is evaluating them too. Both sides are watching, both are more cautious, and both are quicker to read one disagreement as a signal.

HQ's first review lands at the same time. The first quarter closes and HQ looks at numbers that are usually poor, because [first-year revenue is late by nature](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/first-year-budget-overrun-in-japan?hsLang=en). The pressure flows from HQ to the expats and into the meeting room.

And the point that matters most. In Japan, storming doesn't look like storming. It shows up as quiet. Local staff stop objecting, start answering "hard to say", move conversations to after the meeting, and do only what is explicitly asked. As [the post on neutral survey answers](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/japan-neutral-survey-answers?hsLang=en) argued, neutral here is often already a no. A month three that looks harmonious may be the dangerous kind.

## What to do before month three

Write down decision rights. Who sets quotes, who decides hires, who decides what goes in the report. Do it in month one, on paper, signed by HQ. Most month-three conflict comes from nobody knowing who has the authority to end the discussion. Differing opinions are the smaller part of it.

Rehearse the first big disagreement on something small. In month one, run one real but low-stakes decision through the formal process, say the office location or the first vendor. Let HQ and local staff clash once over a small thing and learn how to close it.

Put a named meeting in month three. A team dinner won't do. Make it a three-month review with a fixed agenda: what was harder than expected, which rules need changing, who feels their role differs from what was agreed. Inviting disagreement to the table is cheaper than letting it grow in the corridor.

Finally, accept that output dips this month. If Gersick is right, a team has to re-examine its direction at some point, and that is how it works. In a Japan entity that point tends to come around month three, though it may be month six. What matters is being in the room when it arrives, and recognizing it.

References

- [Tuckman, B. W. (1965). Developmental sequence in small groups. Psychological Bulletin 63(6), 384-399](https://doi.org/10.1037/h0022100)
- [Gersick, C. J. G. (1988). Time and transition in work teams: Toward a new model of group development. Academy of Management Journal 31(1), 9-41](https://doi.org/10.5465/256496)
- [Bonebright, D. A. (2010). 40 years of storming: a historical review of Tuckman's model of small group development. Human Resource Development International 13(1), 111-120](https://doi.org/10.1080/13678861003589099)

Author

[Nobu Sato](https://nobusato.jp/en/profile?hsLang=en)

Launching in Japan, starting with people and systems. I write about building organizations, sales teams and technology organizations in Japan, in English, Japanese and Chinese.

[Profile](https://nobusato.jp/en/profile?hsLang=en)[Contact](https://nobusato.jp/en/contact?hsLang=en)

## Read next

1. 01[Set the rules in the first ninety days, or don't bother](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/set-the-rules-in-the-first-ninety-days?hsLang=en)6 min
   
   In a 750-person experiment, seeing a rule-follower changed nothing; seeing someone on your side break one raised ...
2. 02[Who decides in the Japan entity when the boss is away](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/who-decides-when-the-boss-is-away?hsLang=en)5 min
   
   After the Batavia wrecked in 1629, a junior merchant filled the vacuum the officers left; over a hundred died. A vacuum ...
3. 03[Before HQ monitors the Japan team through software](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/before-hq-monitors-the-japan-team-remotely?hsLang=en)5 min
   
   A meta-analysis of 23,000 people found no link between monitoring and performance. Before HQ installs software to watch ...

[Column guide: Launching in Japan](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/guide-launching-in-japan?hsLang=en) · [Glossary](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/glossary?hsLang=en) · [The method behind the articles](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/method?hsLang=en)

[← All articles](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog?hsLang=en)

## Writing about launching in Japan, in three languages.

[Profile](https://nobusato.jp/en/profile?hsLang=en) [Get in touch](https://nobusato.jp/en/contact?hsLang=en)

Nobu Sato

Writing about launching in Japan, in three languages.

[info@nobusato.jp](mailto:info@nobusato.jp) [Substack](https://nobusato.substack.com)[Newsletter](https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/the-japan-entry-memo-7519750783555518464/)[Medium](https://medium.com/@nobusato5888)[LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/realnobusato/)[X](https://x.com/nobusato5888) [RSS](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/rss.xml?hsLang=en)

[Profile](https://nobusato.jp/en/profile?hsLang=en)[Method](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/method?hsLang=en)[Articles](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog?hsLang=en)[Glossary](https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/glossary?hsLang=en)[Contact](https://nobusato.jp/en/contact?hsLang=en)

Views here are my own and don’t represent any organization I work or have worked for.

© 2026 Nobu Sato. All rights reserved.·[Privacy and disclaimer](https://nobusato.jp/en/privacy?hsLang=en)

```json
{
  "@context" : "https://schema.org",
  "@type" : "BreadcrumbList",
  "itemListElement" : [ {
    "@type" : "ListItem",
    "item" : "https://nobusato.jp/en",
    "name" : "Home",
    "position" : 1
  }, {
    "@type" : "ListItem",
    "item" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog",
    "name" : "Articles",
    "position" : 2
  }, {
    "@type" : "ListItem",
    "item" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/tag/launching-in-japan",
    "name" : "Launching in Japan",
    "position" : 3
  }, {
    "@type" : "ListItem",
    "item" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest",
    "name" : "Why month three is the hardest for a new team",
    "position" : 4
  } ]
}
```

```json
{
  "@context" : "https://schema.org",
  "@id" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest",
  "@type" : "WebPage",
  "about" : {
    "@type" : "Thing",
    "name" : "Launching in Japan"
  },
  "author" : {
    "@id" : "https://nobusato.jp/#person"
  },
  "description" : "Tuckman's storming has a date in a Japan entity: month three, when HQ expats and local hires first decide together. None of Gersick's eight teams followed it.",
  "inLanguage" : "en",
  "isPartOf" : {
    "@id" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog",
    "@type" : "Blog",
    "name" : "Articles"
  },
  "keywords" : "Launching in Japan",
  "name" : "Why month three is the hardest for a new team",
  "url" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest"
}
```

```json
{
  "@context" : "https://schema.org",
  "@id" : "https://nobusato.jp/#person",
  "@type" : "Person",
  "alternateName" : [ "佐藤伸明", "Nobu Sato", "左滕" ],
  "description" : "Japan market launches: organization, sales and technology",
  "knowsAbout" : [ "Japan market entry", "Organization design", "Talent acquisition", "Sales organization building", "Technology organization building", "Japanese labor law" ],
  "name" : "Nobu Sato",
  "sameAs" : [ "https://www.linkedin.com/in/realnobusato/", "https://x.com/nobusato5888" ],
  "url" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/profile"
}
```

```json
{
  "@context" : "https://schema.org",
  "@type" : "BlogPosting",
  "author" : {
    "@type" : "Person",
    "name" : "Nobu Sato",
    "url" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/author/nobu-sato"
  },
  "dateModified" : "2026-10-24T14:29:37.906Z",
  "datePublished" : "2026-10-24T12:34:46.000Z",
  "headline" : "Why month three is the hardest for a new team",
  "image" : [ "https://nobusato.jp/hubfs/covers-2026-11/why-month-three-is-the-hardest-cover-en-2026-10-m.png" ],
  "mainEntityOfPage" : {
    "@id" : "https://nobusato.jp/en/blog/why-month-three-is-the-hardest",
    "@type" : "WebPage"
  },
  "publisher" : {
    "@type" : "Organization",
    "logo" : {
      "@type" : "ImageObject",
      "url" : "https://nobusato.jp/hubfs/seo/logo-nobusato-2026-10.png"
    },
    "name" : "nobusato.jp"
  }
}
```